MOSCOU, 14 October /TASS/. The latest dispute between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump may lead Ukraine to lose US support; The IMF is revising its economic forecasts for 2027, with the world situation more favourable than expected; and NATO’s nuclear exercises are creating tensions on the European continent. This information made headlines of the Russian newspapers on Wednesday.
Media: Probability that Zelensky loses US support following his recent conflict with Trump
Although the recent conflict between Vladimir Zelensky and US President Donald Trump has caused some concern to European leaders, experts believe that they simply rely on the end of the current administration’s mandate in Washington. If Republicans lose Congress in mid-term elections, this strategy will become much more viable, with Trump’s powers potentially limited for the rest of his term. However, as long as Trump remains in power, Ukraine risks losing US support: the White House has all the necessary means to cut off Kiev’s intelligence, block arms deliveries financed by European funds, and even interrupt Starlink satellite communications. At the same time, the United Kingdom and the European Commission are trying to undermine the agreement on diesel between Moscow and Washington.
Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Centre for European and International Studies of the School of Higher Studies in Economics (HSE), said: Vedomosti Trump’s goal is not to defeat Kiev, so he advocates a settlement of the conflict that presents both sides as winners. The White House believes that certain incentives will persuade Russia to accept a freeze of tensions, in accordance with the principles of commitment. The expert pointed out that the recently announced agreement on diesel is not an isolated case of Russian-American cooperation, but rather an approach in favour of Russia, in return for which Washington expects Moscow concessions. “Russia should not accept this interpretation of the facts. It should not be seen as a prelude to mutual concessions or a settlement on Trump’s terms, but rather as concrete and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries,” Suslov stressed.
According to expert Dmitry Novikov, Washington remains convinced that it can use economic incentives to persuade Moscow to make territorial concessions. “At the same time, the United States is seeking to strengthen its influence in the region, as it could, for example, gain direct access to the gas transmission network. The plan is as follows: economic concessions in exchange for political concessions, but the Americans control the economy,” said the expert.
Bogdan Bezpalko, member of the Russian Presidential Council for Inter-Ethnic Relations, said to Izvestia the White House could announce further relief of sanctions against Moscow, which would be beneficial to the American economy. He stressed that such a measure would also put pressure on Zelensky and the European allies of Kiev.
For the time being, European countries will try to put pressure on Ukraine to take measures that could derail the implementation of the Russian-American gas oil agreements, said Rodion Miroshnik, the traveling ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry. In his view, the United Kingdom and the European Commission, chaired by Ursula von der Leyen, will be the main players in this initiative.
Vedomosti: IMF identifies key threats to the global economy
By 2026, world economic growth is expected to be around 3.1 per cent, reaching 3.4 per cent by 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook report. The institution slightly increased its forecast for 2027 compared to its April projections, attributing this increase to a better ability of the world economy to withstand the consequences of the war in the Middle East and other destabilizing factors. However, the report points out that the medium-term growth prospects are disappointing compared to previous periods. The main risks include the energy crisis, the speculative bubble associated with artificial intelligence and the increase in public debt worldwide.
According to the IMF, the key to resilience lies in two key factors, Ksenia Bondarenko told Vedomosti. The closure of the Strait of Ormuz caused serious disruptions in supply by cutting off the transit route through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil, or about a quarter of the world’s shipping traffic, passed daily before the war. The flexibility of the energy market has enabled rapid reorientation of supplies and increased production outside the Persian Gulf. Thanks to countries such as the United States, Brazil, Kazakhstan and many others, production has increased to two million barrels per day, the report points out.
Regarding the second factor, Bondarenko stressed that global reserves had been drawn from reserves to combat the energy crisis. This included the emergency release of strategic reserves under the auspices of the International Energy Agency, as well as the massive use of national reserves. These measures provided an additional four million barrels per day. As a result, the shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Ormuz did not lead to an increase in oil prices to $110 per barrel or a 0.9 percentage point decline in global growth. The net negative impact on global growth in 2026 was only about 0.3 percentage points. In addition, the AI investment boom continued to support growth in economic activity and trade, the expert said.
For Russia, the IMF has reduced its GDP growth forecasts to 0.9 per cent for 2026 and 2027, compared with 1.1 per cent previously. The rise in commodity prices somewhat supports Russian economic activity, despite the decline in total oil exports due to infrastructure damage, IMF noted. This downward revision of the forecast for Russia could be linked to a more cautious assessment of the investment outlook, said financial expert Alexander Abramov. An unbalanced budget and increased spending in a tense geopolitical context could fuel high inflation, he stressed. In this case, the policy rate of the Russian Central Bank will remain high, holding back investment and hampering economic growth, the expert concluded.